Federal reserve on track to raise interest rates this summer

•December 20, 2014 • 1 Comment



The Federal Reserve on Wednesday offered a strong signal that it was on track to raise interest rates sometime next year, dropping a pledge to keep them near zero for a “considerable time” in a show of confidence in the U.S. economy.

Closing out a two-day meeting against a backdrop of solid domestic growth but trouble overseas, the U.S. central bank ditched its long-standing vow and instead said it would take a “patient” approach in deciding when to bump borrowing costs higher.

In doing so, it looked beyond economic difficulties in the euro zone, Japan and Russia and offered a mostly upbeat assessment of the U.S. economy’s prospects.

“Based on its current assessment, the committee judges that it can be patient in beginning to normalise the stance of monetary policy,” the Fed said in a statement. Significantly, the Fed said it viewed that statement as “consistent” with its previous language that it would be a considerable time before it hiked rates.

While the growth outlook remained solid, Fed policymakers indicated that they would take a slower approach to the pace of future rate hikes, a nod to the still-weak inflation picture.

The Fed dropped benchmark rates to near zero in December 2008 as it battled the financial crisis and deep recession.

Now, with the unemployment rate down to a six-year low of 5.8 percent, many economists think the Fed will begin to lift them around the middle of next year, an expectation that is already roiling global financial markets.


if anything, the markets reacted to the news that nothing would happen right now..but i was more interested in the fact she said that the time is coming..when they will go up..the dow jones jizzed all over this and had its biggest gains for nearly 4 years..

“many economists think the Fed will begin to lift them around the middle of next year, an expectation that is already roiling global financial markets.”


Next phase in currency wars: Yen plunge, Yuan devaluation and tidal wave of westbound deflation

•December 20, 2014 • 2 Comments

Yen SG


The Yen currently trades about 115 to the US dollar. At the end of 2011 the Yen was about 77 to the dollar. That is a decline of roughly 33%.

Yet, Japan’s inflation barely budged. Japan’s prime minister Shinzō Abe is not pleased.

On October 31, the Bank of Japan pledged “Unwavering Determination” to Get 2% Inflation. The Yen plunged and Nikkei futures rose limit up.

What’s Next?

To quote Yogi Berra, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” I know full well, having made some spectacular calls but also some very bad ones over the past few years.

Nonetheless, via email, Society General’s Albert Edwards expects a “Tidal Wave of Westward Deflation” and “Yen at 145 to US Dollar by March“.

¥145/$ by end of March – Albert Edwards

Forecast timidity prevents anyone forecasting ¥145/$ by end of March – so I will.

We revisit the most important chart investors should be focused on, namely the yen/dollar chart. The market still does not seem to have grasped the significance of this phase of currency wars. It reminds me of the 2006/07 period when falling US house prices and then widening corporate bond spreads were totally ignored by upbeat equity investors until it was too late. The yen is set to follow the US dollar DXY trade – weighted index by crashing through multi-decade resistance – around ¥120. It seems entirely plausible to me that once we break ¥120, we could see a very quick ¥25 move to ¥145, forcing commensurate devaluations across the whole Asian region and sending a tidal wave of deflation westwards.

Edwards sees a decline in the Yen to 145 to the US dollar. If so that would be a currency decline of about 50% since 2011. At that point, the Yen would be where it was in July of 1998, so the move is not as shocking as it may initially sound.

Deflation Shockwave Thesis

  1. Next phase of currency wars is underway.
  2. Abe will “do whatever it takes” to produce inflation in Japan.
  3. Abe will soon “lose control of the situation”.
  4. Yen sinks to 145 to US dollar.
  5. China will respond by devaluing Yuan.
  6. “Tidal Wave of Deflation” heads West.
  7. US brands China a “currency manipulator”
  8. Global currency crisis ensues
  9. Gold soars

Points 1-6 from Edwards. I added points 7-9, as explained below.

It may play out this way, but if so, perhaps it takes longer than March. I will give a big tip of the hat to Edwards if it plays out that way within a couple of years (whether or not my points 7-9 happen).

My only disagreement with Edwards is on a tangential issue. The problem in the eurozone is not Mario Draghi or Germany.

Draghi cannot do “whatever it takes” to spur credit and inflation because the primary problem in the eurozone is structural, with the euro itself. A key secondary problem is productivity issues between member states. The secondary issue cannot be resolved (except at the expense of Germany and the Northern states) if every country remains on the Euro.

When China reacts (and China will react if the Yen hits 145 to the dollar, perhaps before that point), the US will scream and the protectionists in Congress will call on Obama to label China a “currency manipulator“.

Political necessity ensures the largest screams will not be about Japan, but about China, when China reacts to pressure from Japan.

Labeling China a currency manipulator would of course make matters much worse, but that is precisely what I expect from Congress should China devalue. Global trade would then collapse amidst competitive currency debasement. Finally, under such a scenario, gold would likely soar.


nice work by mish..currency wars are in final preparations and some may have even started minor skirmishes..

watch for this..

“Yen sinks to 145 to US dollar.”

then the shit starts to hit the fan..you can see on the graph that 145 goes back to 1998..


Germany to be gas powered for next 70 years

•December 20, 2014 • Leave a Comment



Germany’s plan to phase out nuclear energy and switch to renewables by 2022 is unrealistic as the country is doomed to remain dependent on fossil fuels like oil and gas for the next 70 years, energy expert Matthias Dornfeldt told RT.

Renewables can’t replace fossil fuels overnight because there’s not enough infrastructure, said Dornfeldt in an interview with RT. He believes the 21st century will be the century of gas, as the 20th century was the century of oil.

“We are going to be dependent on oil as well as on gas, as I see, for the next 50, 60, 70 years”, he said, adding there is “a huge impact of fossil fuels on the national economy in Germany.”

His comments echo a Wednesday study by the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) that said Germany would remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades.

Oil, natural gas, coal and lignite account for 80 percent of German energy consumption. Germany’s game plan to switch to renewables known as Energiewende, and the recently approved National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency looking very unrealistic, the report added.

Following the 2011 disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan, Angela Merkel’s government made a commitment to phase out nuclear power by 2022 and get 80 percent of its energy from renewable sources by 2050. The country will need new energy infrastructure, including new power plants, transmission lines and additional energy storage.

Although some scientists look at the government’s attempts to cut emissions with skepticism, it hopes to reverse this with the Action Plan on Climate Protection it passed earlier in December. The plan suggests a goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent compared to 1990 levels by 2020.

Germany is still on a long way from achieving its target. Even oil production in Germany, which is small compared with the big international producers, contributes more to power generation than all of domestic photovoltaic equipment put together, the BGR study says.

In 2014 the share of renewables in Germany’s energy mix grew 5 percent from the year before.


“His comments echo a Wednesday study by the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) that said Germany would remain dependent on fossil fuels for decades.”

there will be no zero co2 emissions target reached..its impossible..it will never happen..

“Oil, natural gas, coal and lignite account for 80 percent of German energy consumption. Germany’s game plan to switch to renewables known as Energiewende, and the recently approved National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency looking very unrealistic”

it made some people feel really warm and cosy inside though..reality check time..


Ukraine underplays the role of the far right in conflict

•December 20, 2014 • 3 Comments




Ever since Ukraine’s February revolution, the Kremlin has characterised the new leaders in Kiev as a “fascist junta” made up of neo-Nazis and anti-Semites, set on persecuting, if not eradicating, the Russian-speaking population.

This is demonstrably false. Far-right parties failed to pass a 5% percent barrier to enter parliament, although if they had banded together, and not split their vote, they would have probably slipped past the threshold.

Only one government minister has links to nationalist parties – though he is in no way a neo-Nazi or fascist. And the speaker of parliament, Volodymyr Groysman, is Jewish. He has the third most powerful position in the country after the president and prime minister.

But Ukrainian officials and many in the media err to the other extreme. They claim that Ukrainian politics are completely fascist-free. This, too, is plain wrong.

As a result, the question of the presence of the far-right in Ukraine remains a highly sensitive issue, one which top officials and the media shy away from. No-one wants to provide fuel to the Russian propaganda machine.

But this blanket denial also has its dangers, since it allows the ultra-nationalists to fly under the radar. Many Ukrainians are unaware that they exist, or even what a neo-Nazi or fascist actually is, or what they stand for.

This hyper-sensitivity and stonewalling were on full display after President Petro Poroshenko presented a Ukrainian passport to someone who, according to human rights activists, is a “Belarusian neo-Nazi”.

The Ukrainian leader handed out medals on 5 December to fighters who had tenaciously defended the main airport in the eastern region of Donetsk from being taken over by Russian-backed separatists.

Among the recipients was Serhiy Korotkykh, a Belarusian national, to whom Mr Poroshenko awarded Ukrainian citizenship, praising his “courageous and selfless service”.

The president’s website showed a photo of Mr Poroshenko patting the shoulder of the Belarusian, who was clad in military fatigues.

Experts who follow the far right have strongly objected to President Poroshenko’s decision.

They say Mr Korotkykh was a member of the far-right Russian National Unity party and also a founding member of the neo-Nazi National Socialist Society (NSS) in Russia.

According to Ukrainian academic Anton Shekhovtsov, the NSS’s main goal “is to prepare for a race war”.

Mr Shekhovtsov said the Belarusian had been charged for involvement in a bombing in central Moscow in 2007, and was detained in 2013 in the Belarusian capital Minsk for allegedly stabbing an anti-fascist activist. He was later released for lack of evidence.

Even though the details involved accusations rather than facts, if true they were damning, said human rights activist Halya Coynash.

Top Ukrainian officials then rejected as defamatory any claims that Mr Korotkykh had neo-Nazi ties.

“Counter-intelligence has no information that could prevent him from receiving Ukrainian citizenship,” said Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, the head of Ukraine’s security services.

Nevertheless, the fact is, neo-Nazis are indeed a fixture in Ukraine’s new political landscape, albeit in small numbers.


this article is written with western bias but even then the author concedes the nazis do have some control and power..its a given to us..we have eyes and saw it..does he think everyone else is blind as well?

“Nevertheless, the fact is, neo-Nazis are indeed a fixture in Ukraine’s new political landscape, albeit in small numbers.”

and just in case you thought we were being paranoid..

“the speaker of parliament, Volodymyr Groysman, is Jewish. He has the third most powerful position in the country after the president and prime minister.”

the chocolate king and yukky are jews as well..so all top 3 jobs..


Dow soars 421 points in best day since November 2011

•December 19, 2014 • 1 Comment



Stocks soared for a second day Thursday and the Dow had its best day in more than three years as good feelings about the Fed’s Wednesday announcement that rate hikes aren’t on the immediate horizon continued to boost the market.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 421.28 points, or 2.4%, to close at 17,778.15, its best one-day point gain since Nov. 30, 2011. The two-day rally saw the Dow gain 708 points, its best two-day point gain since Nov. 2008.

“The mini correction is over,” says David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. “The markets are again realizing that the (bull market) basics of low interest rates, low inflation, and a gradual economic recovery are solidly in place.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 index gained 48.34 points, or 2.4%, to 2061.23 and has added 88 points, or 4.5%, in two days. That is the broad-based index’s best two-day percent performance in more than three years.

Gains were led by tech stocks, the best-performing sector in the S&P. The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index rose 104.08 points, or 2.2%, to 4748.40.

The stock market’s two-day paper gain was approximately $1.1 trillion, according to Wilshire Associates.

“Fed-induced optimism sent the Dow to its best day of the year yesterday, and the blue-chip barometer is set to pick up right where it left off,” Karee Venema of Schaeffer’s Investment Research noted early in the day.

Investors in Europe, especially in Germany and France, are also relieved that the Russian ruble is showing signs of stabilization.

The CAC 40 of France jumped 3.4% and Germany’s DAX added 2.8%. The FTSE of Britain gained 2%.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 index gained 2% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 1%. The Shanghai composite fell 0.1%

The good market news comes in the wake of volatility churned in recent days by a plunging Russian ruble and cratering oil prices. The ruble has stabilized, now trading for about 60 to one U.S. dollar. Oil is dropping more: A barrel of West Texas intermediate crude is down shy of 2%, at a few dimes above $56.


its happy days..everything is working well again..phew!

“The mini correction is over,” says David Kotok

famous last words..


Moody’s cuts Alaska’s outlook to negative on oil

•December 19, 2014 • 2 Comments



The crude price has caught up with one US state.

Alaska is at risk of losing its AAA credit rating as lower oil prices squeeze the state government’s revenues, rating agency Moody’s warned.

The outlook on Alaska’s top rating was cut to negative late on Tuesday by Moody’s, which added the move covers $870m of Alaska’s general obligation bonds as well as debt issued by Alaska Municipal Bond Bank and the Alaska Energy Authority.

Although oil production in Alaska has fallen in recent years, the industry still generated almost half of its revenues in fiscal year 2013. Moody’s said:

“Just as the state has benefitted from high oil prices in recent years, prices well below previous expectations could lead the state to substantially reduce its financial reserves, eroding a key support to its Aaa rating.”


the low price of oil is now starting to bite the usa..it will hit their shale profits eventually and its seen alaska take a hit now..


Skin cancer treatment doubles Novogen share price..up 96%

•December 19, 2014 • 7 Comments



A MEDICAL breakthrough in the treatment of melanoma has doubled the share price of biotechnology firm Novogen, just two years after the company abandoned a push to dismantle Australian operations in favour of its New York-based subsidiary.

Novogen shares ended trade yesterday 96.43 per cent higher after the company announced its brain cancer treatment Trilexium had been shown in pre-clinical studies to be highly effective against melanoma.

Novogen would now attempt to secure funding for clinical trials and to take the therapy to market, the company’s executive director Graham Kelly said.

“People have speculated for some time that there’s a link between melanoma and brain cancer, so a drug that could knock out both is an important scientific discovery,” Dr Kelly said.

“From a shareholder point of view, there are very few drugs that work against melanoma.”

Dr Kelly said the development of Trilexium had been one of the cheapest drug developments ever, at around $1.5m, But the cost of bringing a drug into the clinic and onto shelves would be in the order of $15m to $20m, he said.


thats a massive payday for shareholders..if they sold..

any sort of cure for melanomas will be welcome in my country..i think we have the worst rate in the world..we are addicted to being outside which is a healthy way to live but thankfully now we are seeing the popular practice of tanning is starting to lose its appeal..life is more important than brown skin..you need to cover up..i can see novogen being bought out in the near future..



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