Cooling Pacific has dampened global warming..your kidding right?

Global temperature rise

Cooling waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean appear to be a major factor in dampening global warming in recent years, scientists said on Wednesday.

Their work is a big step forward in helping to solve the greatest puzzle of current climate change research – why global average surface temperatures, while still on an upward trend, have risen more slowly in the past 10 to fifteen years than previously.

Waters in the eastern tropical regions of the Pacific have been notably cooler in recent years, owing to the effects of one of the world’s biggest ocean circulatory systems, the Pacific decadal oscillation.

Many people are aware of the El Niño and La Niña weather systems, which affect the Pacific and bring hotter and stormier or cooler weather in cycles of just a few years, and can have a strong effect on global weather. But few are aware that both of these systems are just part of the much bigger Pacific decadal oscillation, which brings warmer and cooler weather over decades.

The system is now in a cooling phase, scientists have noted, which could last for years. The last such phase was from the 1940s to the 1970s.

The new study by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and supported by the US government’s National Oceans and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), published in the journal Nature, has linked the “pause” in global warming with the Pacific oscillation.

Dan Barrie, programme manager at NOAA, called the research “compelling” and said: “[It] provides a powerful illustration of how the remote eastern tropical Pacific guides the behaviour of the global ocean-atmosphere system, in this case exhibiting a discernible influence on the recent hiatus in global warming.”

The slowdown in the upward march of global average temperatures has been greeted by climate sceptics as evidence that the climate is less affected by greenhouse gases than thought. But climate scientists are much more cautious, pointing out that the trend is still upwards, and that the current temperature rises are well within the expected range. Past temperature records and computer predictions both show that periods of slower rises are to be expected as part of the natural variability of the planet’s climate.

These issues are likely to be a major focus of the forthcoming report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the body of scientists who produce the most authoritative and comprehensive summaries of climate research. Their eagerly awaited fifth report, seven years since the last, will be published next month. It is likely to affirm that scientists are more certain than ever – at least 95%, up from 90% previously – that climate change is happening and is mostly caused by human actions, but it may suggest that the climate is slightly less sensitive to carbon than some outlying research has posited. That may mean that some of the highest estimates of future temperature rises, of more than 6C within several decades, are less likely, but it does not let the world off the hook – warming of more than 2C is still highly likely on current high emissions trends, and that would cause severe consequences around the world.

Nature journal, August 28:

A new study adds to mounting evidence that cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean is the cause of the global warming hiatus, a slow-down in the rise of average temperatures that began around 1998.

Chris Mooney, host of Climate Desk Live:

So what is causing the surface temperature slowdown?… Perhaps the leading explanation for the slowdown is that the oceans, and particularly the vast Pacific, are storing more heat at depth.

Reader handjive:

To summarize: the unpredicted cooling, or “pause”, is caused by catastrophic man made global warming, which is now ‘hiding’ in the oceans that are cooling, from which the catastrophic global warming will spring from the oceans and fry the children’s children 100 years in the future, even though we can see the effects now with co2 @ 400ppm. And if you believe that you are a fool and beyond hope.


the disconnect is on..the warming has detached from the co2 emissions..

the heat which disappeared that they claimed went into the didnt go to into the oceans..because the pacific actualy cooled..and that made it less it was cooler..yeah right..and dont forget..all the rain that fell in australia stopped the oceans from rising for 2 years..its like hearing stories from a book of fables..


~ by seeker401 on September 1, 2013.

2 Responses to “Cooling Pacific has dampened global warming..your kidding right?”

  1. The 20th century temperature run-up has been variously called Global Warming, Climate Change and even Global Climate Disruption. Outside of the Climate Science community, a simple, verifiable determination of what caused it and why it stopped has been made. Analysis made public at includes an equation based on rational physics that, without considering any influence from CO2 whatsoever and using only one external forcing, has calculated average global temperatures since they have been accurately measured world wide (approximately 1895) with an accuracy of 90% (R2 = 0.8982, correlation coefficient = 0.948). Including the influence of CO2 (a second independent variable) increased the accuracy an insignificant amount to R2 = 0.9006.

    • nice link dan..thanks warming religion is such a load of supposition and modelling..guesswork and consensual manipulation..

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