2014: The inevitability of predicting the future

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/tech/predicting-the-future/

In February, while the world was watching citizens of the Ukraine topple their government from behind barricades of flaming tires, computer scientist Naren Ramakrishnan and his research team were intently watching a similar situation unfold in Venezuela.

The South American nation has been a tinderbox since early February when Leopoldo Lopez, mayor of Chacao and an opposition leader, tweeted a call for #LaSalida on Friday, January 31. We will meet this Sundayhis tweet readfor #TheExit. The hashtag was a thinly coded call for the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro, Hugo Chavez’s successor. The protests, which decry high inflation, shortages of staple goods, and the country’s soaring homicide rate, started in Chacao and quickly spread to the capital, Caracas. For a while, demonstrations took place nearly every day. Since the unrest began, at least 32 people have died.

For years, Ramakrishnan, a professor at Virginia Tech, and his team have been sifting through tweets, blog posts, and news articles about Latin America, keeping a close eye on events in ten countries, including Venezuela. These past couple of months have been no different. But Ramakrishnan and his colleagues haven’t been bent over newspapers or straining their eyes scanning streams of tweets. Rather, they were monitoring the dashboard of EMBERS, their computer program that draws on tweets, news articles, and more to predict the future.

Lopez’s #LaSalida tweet was probably among those which EMBERS analyzed, and the meaning of its uncoded message was almost certainly clear to the sophisticated system. But by that point, EMBERS had already suggested to its operators that Venezuela was ripe for civil unrest. It had also done the same for Brazil many months earlier, accurately predicting the June 2013 demonstrations against rising transit fares.

EMBERS is the result of years’ worth of work by Ramakrishnan and his team, which includes computer scientists, statisticians, political scientists, social scientists, and an epidemiologist. It is the winning entrant in the Open Source Initiative at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, a part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. IARPA, according to its website, “invests in high-risk, high-payoff research programs that have the potential to provide the United States with an overwhelming intelligence advantage over future adversaries.” The ability to accurately forecast civil unrest, epidemics, and elections around the world could do exactly that.

Soon, EMBERS’s capabilities will expand beyond Latin America to the Middle East. It will draw on some of the same data sources, but also add new feeds. Its language processing routines will be adapted to new languages, and portions of its code will be tailored to that region’s cultures. No one is saying exactly when EMBERS and its offspring will be used to inform decisions by intelligence agents, but given IARPA’s role in funding it, that seems to be the plan.

Continue here: http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/tech/predicting-the-future/

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from 2014..

“EMBERS is the result of years’ worth of work by Ramakrishnan and his team, which includes computer scientists, statisticians, political scientists, social scientists, and an epidemiologist. It is the winning entrant in the Open Source Initiative at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity, a part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. IARPA, according to its website, “invests in high-risk, high-payoff research programs that have the potential to provide the United States with an overwhelming intelligence advantage over future adversaries.” The ability to accurately forecast civil unrest, epidemics, and elections around the world could do exactly that.”

embers..

you dont have to be a rocket scientist to see it..really..

its all in the numbers.. 10001001010100111000..

401

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~ by seeker401 on September 20, 2017.

One Response to “2014: The inevitability of predicting the future”

  1. from 2015: Soros and his New Ukraine…

    https://journal-neo.org/2015/06/12/an-american-oligarch-s-dirty-tale-of-corruption/

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