New Zealand election result is anyone’s guess..National Party wins most votes but not enough to govern outright

Two months ago New Zealand’s centre-right ruling National Party looked set to secure itself a fourth term in office.

Despite the shock resignation of Prime Minister John Key last December the party had retained its popularity and was well ahead in the polls under the leadership of Bill English.

But in recent weeks New Zealand politics has experienced more twists and turns than anyone could have reasonably predicted.

It started with three leadership changes.

The opposition Labour Party switched out its leader Andrew Little for deputy Jacinda Ardern at the beginning of August, skyrocketing its popularity in the polls from its lowest results in decades to its best since the Helen Clark days.

The Green Party weathered a scandal that claimed co-leader Metiria Turei’s job – her admission she committed benefit fraud coincided with a drop from a record high poll result of 16 per cent to below 5 per cent, a figure that, under Mixed-Member Proportional (MMP) voting would see the party booted from parliament.

And then centrist United Future leader Peter Dunne, a fixture in parliament for 33 years, decided to retire mid-campaign.

On top of that National MP Jian Yang admitted teaching English to Chinese spies, NZ First leader Winston Peters repaid seven years of superannuation overpayments, National accused Labour of having an $11.7 billion fiscal hole that no economists could find, Jacinda Ardern was compared to Donald Trump by the Wall Street Journal and a sitting MP moved overseas during a police investigation into an alleged secret recording scandal that ended his political career.

Despite the changes and the fact there’s still a few days to go, more than half a million – one in six enrolled voters – have turned out to cast early votes.

If the polls are anything to go by, the final result on September 23 is anyone’s guess, with the two main polls forecasting vastly different outcomes.

Colmar Brunton has Labour ahead by four points on 44 per cent while the latest Reid Research poll, released on Tuesday, puts National ahead by 10 points on 47 per cent.

An aggregate poll puts the parties neck and neck – coalitions would once again be needed to form government, something that’s been standard for New Zealand since MMP started in 1996.

That means New Zealanders may need to wait for days or weeks before knowing who their next leader will be as the different political parties try to negotiate with each other to secure a majority.

With nearly all votes counted, the National Party was leading with 46 per cent, while support for Labour was 35.8 per cent, according to the Electoral Commission.

The nationalist New Zealand First Party had about 7.5 per cent of the vote so far, tipping it as a likely kingmaker.


we have a kingmaker..winston peters..which way will he go?


~ by seeker401 on September 25, 2017.

2 Responses to “New Zealand election result is anyone’s guess..National Party wins most votes but not enough to govern outright”

  1. Reblogged this on World4Justice : NOW! Lobby Forum..

  2. 0s ago
    NZ First enters coalition with Labour

    The country voted for change, Peters says.

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