THIS IS WHERE WE ARE GOING

Ready for a reality check?   Here goes..

Within the next 20 years we will be living in a different world !   An interesting talk by the Managing Director  of Daimler Benz  — a bit mind blowing really

In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon ‘et al’ are… There have always been the 3 constants… Death, Taxes and CHANGE!

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world!

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world,  10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don’t get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You  don’t want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will  never get a driver’s licence and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die  each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model  will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can’t last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don’t have  scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health:    The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek)  that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.

It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All  major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-story office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: “in the future, do you think we will have that?” and if the answer  is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn’t work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work:  70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture:  There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don’t need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as “alternative protein source” (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell in which mood you’re in.  By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s being displayed when they’re telling the truth and when they’re not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency … Of the world!

Longevity:  Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it’s 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education:  The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone  has the same access to world class education.

———-

hard to argue against this list..

what are your thoughts?

favourite line?

401

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~ by seeker401 on November 2, 2017.

14 Responses to “THIS IS WHERE WE ARE GOING”

  1. So, while all the little misers are already counting their fortunes, just who do they think will have ‘money’ to pay for these little luxuries in their bold, new world, if most of the people have no income or careers left?

  2. Most people will become surplus to requirement in the new Dystopia

  3. The call up the car is not attractive. Every morning cars will come from a distant parking garage and pick up thousands, if not millions of people? I doubt it. Like waiting for a taxi, and all the traffic. The inconvenience alone might rid that idea.

    The longevity over 100 is far-fetched also. Health is not always an issue. People just get old.

    Smart phones=world class education, probably the most dangerous idea in the list.

  4. The whole article gives a tidy summary, except I disagree with the writer’s conclusion that banks will be in competition with taxis. On some level, yes they will be, but banks will remain and central banks will only grow stronger and more abstract in the minds of people. Just how the Federal Reserve, and other central banks, are abstract entities for society at large, and therefore, blown off as conspiracy-lunacy by some when they are told just how influential and corrupt the central banks really are. What people do not see, they tend to not know about and misunderstand.

    There is interesting relationship between Asian countries, African countries, and Estonia. All had a restart in their fintech; they skipped generations of technology and fintech that other parts of the world went through. Mobile phone digital currency exchanges in the bush, eh.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-04/are-taxis-the-new-banks

  5. So robots taking our jobs but then who will they build stuff for if we can’t afford it?
    Those in power now will come with a basic universal income to assure their spots of power otherwise they would fail as hard as people nog being able to buy their junk.

  6. https://chapul.com/
    https://www.metal-archives.com/albums/Blind_Guardian/Somewhere_Far_Beyond/414471 Time What Is Time

    • These are the people who need to be sent to Mars! But with no technology or tools that can be developed to use against the sane humans below!
      Let them evolve into infinity!

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